By the end of Q3’17, EUR/USD had broken its uptrend since before French elections in April. And, while there was evidence of a tentative reversal, we had seen a few such patterns over the months that consistently capitulated to the bullish drive.
Chart 1: EUR/USD Daily Timeframe (November 2016 to September 2017)
Yet that the majority of European political drivers are in the rearview mirror – Dutch, French, and German elections – while the next major ones won’t materialize until next year – Italian elections – the current breakdown may gather pace.
In general, economic data should continue to reign supreme as the top influence on the Euro during Q4’17. Coupled with doubts over the timing of the ECB stimulus withdrawal, the Euro is entering the next quarter without a clear bullish catalyst, even as economic data has been generally better in recent weeks.
While this means that the Euro itself should trade sideways, we can’t ignore the market repricing of Fed rate expectations at the end of Q3’17: if rates markets continue to price in a Fed rate hike for December, it seems likely that EUR/USD will drift towards 1.1500 during the course of Q4’17.
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